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Tijdschrift voor Psychiatrie 62 (2020) 12, 1040 - 1048


The predictive value of the Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales (DROS) for predicting recidivism in (forensic) patients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning

M.J. Delforterie, B.L. Hesper, H.L.I. Nijman, H.P.L.M. Korzilius, A. Turhan, R. Didden

background The Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales (dros) was developed to assess treatment progress of patients with mild intellectual disability (mid) or borderline intellectual functioning (bif) and severe behavioral and/or psychiatric problems. Because of the focus on dynamic risk factors, practitioners also see this instrument as a tool for risk assessment.
aim To investigate the predictive value of the dros on different classifications and severities of recidivism.
method dros data from the routine outcome monitoring (rom) of 250 forensic patients with mid-bif who were discharged between 2007 and end of 2014 were linked to recidivism data from the Judicial Information Service.
results The dros total score predicted general, violence and sexual recidivism better than chance (aucs > 0.58), although the effect was small. A dros-recidivism subscale predicted general, violence and other recidivism with a medium to large effect (aucs > 0.67). The predictive values of the dros total score and dros-recidivism subscale were comparable to those of the Historic, Clinical, Future (in Dutch: hkt)-30.
conclusion The dros total score and dros-recidivism subscale predict different classifications of recidivism better than chance. However, for risk assessment the dros appears to have no added value to the hkt-30.

keywords borderline intellectual functioning, mild intellectual disability, risk assessment